Last time, we used meteorological images to determine the image using a CNN model and estimated the weather for the next day. Click here for the previous article Weather forecast from weather images using Deep Learning 1.
This time, I would like to use more detailed weather for the results of the previous survey.
In the analysis, the test period was daily from January to July 2016. This time, we estimated the binary classification of "fine" and "rain", but the weather is actually more detailed. Therefore, I would like to use the estimated "rain" and "fine" probabilities to compare with detailed weather.
The average probabilities for each detailed weather during the estimated period are as follows.
| weather | Rain probability | Clear probability | The number of data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloudy | 42% | 58% | 26 |
| Fine | 21% | 79% | 22 |
| Sunny | 22% | 78% | 19 |
| Cloudy temporary rain | 67% | 33% | 11 |
| Sunny and cloudy | 32% | 68% | 9 |
| Partially cloudy | 36% | 64% | 9 |
| Cloudy temporary clear | 34% | 66% | 8 |
| Lightly cloudy after fine weather | 24% | 76% | 7 |
| Light cloud | 33% | 67% | 7 |
| Rain sometimes cloudy | 53% | 47% | 6 |
| Cloudy and sometimes rain | 59% | 41% | 6 |
| Sunny Temporary cloudy | 33% | 67% | 5 |
| Temporary clear after cloudy | 43% | 57% | 5 |
| Sometimes cloudy after rain | 59% | 41% | 4 |
| Cloudy after rain | 67% | 33% | 4 |
| Sometimes cloudy after fine weather | 21% | 79% | 4 |
| Rain after cloudy | 65% | 35% | 4 |
| After cloudy weather | 21% | 79% | 4 |
| Light cloudy temporary clear | 47% | 53% | 4 |
| Temporary rain after cloudy weather | 48% | 52% | 3 |
| Cloudy and sometimes sunny | 44% | 56% | 3 |
| Temporary cloudy rain | 53% | 47% | 2 |
| Temporarily cloudy after rain | 61% | 39% | 2 |
| Sunny after rain | 67% | 33% | 2 |
| Temporarily cloudy after fine weather | 31% | 69% | 2 |
| Cloudy after sunny | 57% | 43% | 2 |
| Temporary cloudy after heavy rain | 74% | 26% | 2 |
| Sometimes rain after cloudy | 24% | 76% | 2 |
| Cloudy and sometimes rainy | 57% | 43% | 2 |
| Cloudy and sometimes sunny and then temporary rain | 20% | 80% | 2 |
| Sometimes sunny after light cloudy | 16% | 84% | 2 |
| Light cloudy and sometimes sunny | 30% | 70% | 2 |
| rain | 89% | 11% | 1 |
| Sometimes cloudy after a temporary sleet of rain | 24% | 76% | 1 |
| Cloudy after rain, accompanied by hail | 92% | 8% | 1 |
| Rainy but sunny temporary drizzle | 84% | 16% | 1 |
| Rainy and sometimes cloudy | 74% | 26% | 1 |
| Sunny temporary rain | 72% | 28% | 1 |
| Temporary rain after fine weather, accompanied by lightning | 76% | 24% | 1 |
| After clear rain Sometimes cloudy | 3% | 97% | 1 |
| Sunny and sometimes cloudy | 14% | 86% | 1 |
| heavy rain | 92% | 8% | 1 |
| Sometimes sunny after heavy rain, accompanied by sleet | 93% | 7% | 1 |
| Cloudy and sunny after rain | 20% | 80% | 1 |
| Cloudy and sometimes sunny after a temporary rain | 81% | 19% | 1 |
| Cloudy and sunny after a temporary rain | 20% | 80% | 1 |
| Sometimes sunny after cloudy | 89% | 11% | 1 |
| Cloudy and sometimes sunny with temporary rain and thunder | 79% | 21% | 1 |
This is difficult to understand, so let's look at the top of the "rain" probability and the top of the "fine" probability. First, the top 10 items with a "rain" probability are as follows.
| weather | Rain probability | Clear probability | The number of data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sometimes sunny after heavy rain, accompanied by sleet | 93% | 7% | 1 |
| heavy rain | 92% | 8% | 1 |
| Cloudy after rain, accompanied by hail | 92% | 8% | 1 |
| rain | 89% | 11% | 1 |
| Sometimes sunny after cloudy | 89% | 11% | 1 |
| Rainy but sunny temporary drizzle | 84% | 16% | 1 |
| Cloudy and sometimes sunny after a temporary rain | 81% | 19% | 1 |
| Cloudy and sometimes sunny with temporary rain and thunder | 79% | 21% | 1 |
| Temporary rain after fine weather, accompanied by lightning | 76% | 24% | 1 |
| Temporary cloudy after heavy rain | 74% | 26% | 2 |
| Rainy and sometimes cloudy | 74% | 26% | 1 |
Next, the top 10 items with a "fine" probability are as follows.
| weather | Rain probability | Clear probability | The number of data |
|---|---|---|---|
| After clear rain Sometimes cloudy | 3% | 97% | 1 |
| Sunny and sometimes cloudy | 14% | 86% | 1 |
| Sometimes sunny after light cloudy | 16% | 84% | 2 |
| Cloudy and sunny after a temporary rain | 20% | 80% | 1 |
| Cloudy and sunny after rain | 20% | 80% | 1 |
| Cloudy and sometimes sunny and then temporary rain | 20% | 80% | 2 |
| Fine | 21% | 79% | 22 |
| Sometimes cloudy after fine weather | 21% | 79% | 4 |
| After cloudy weather | 21% | 79% | 4 |
| Sunny | 22% | 78% | 19 |
| Sometimes cloudy after a temporary sleet of rain | 24% | 76% | 1 |
Isn't it estimated to be pretty good? Especially for rain, there is a relatively high probability of "heavy rain". On the other hand, when it comes to fine weather, there are many things like "temporary rain." If "fine", "cloudy", and "rain" are all included, the estimation seems to be blurred. This is an issue.
Next time, I would like to improve the teacher data and update the model.
By law, weather forecasts must be accompanied by a weather forecaster. It is described in detail in Konohen. Of course, I'm not a weather forecaster, so I can't generally deliver something like "tomorrow's weather." Also, forecasting according to software or model is basically not allowed.
To quote
** We have created software that automatically calculates the weather and temperature from the numerical weather prediction materials of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Do I need a forecasting license to make forecasts using this software? ** **
Forecasting business permission is required to perform forecasting business regardless of the forecasting method. However, since the forecast of the phenomenon must be done by the weather forecaster, if the forecast is made only by software without the intervention of the weather forecaster, the forecasting work cannot be permitted.
There is.
The "phenomenon" is defined as follows.
Forecast is defined by the Meteorological Service Act as "announcement of forecasts of phenomena based on observation results". Specifically, by specifying the "time" and "place", the situation of natural phenomena that will occur in the future is predicted by a natural science method based on the results of observation, and the result is predicted by the user (third party). It means to provide to. Business means "acts that are repeated and continuously performed".
Offering to third parties also includes publishing on the Web.
Therefore, I would like you to consider this analysis as a personal study.
Recommended Posts